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The season that was: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered a season that fell short of expectations after his standout 2024 campaign and a lucrative long-term contract.

His 2026 performance saw a notable decline in offensive production, with a .260 batting average, .332 on-base percentage, and just 9 home runs in 144 games. While his walk rate dropped to 9.2% from 11.9% the prior year, his strikeout percentage also decreased slightly to 13.3%.

Guerrero’s power numbers were particularly disappointing, as his line-drive rate declined and fewer of his fly balls left the park, contributing to a 1.1 WAR and a $8.6 million value on the season—well below the investment the Blue Jays made in him. Defensively, he led all American League first basemen in errors (8) despite posting a +6 Outs Above Average, the top mark at his position in the league.

His baserunning was also a liability, with a -1.6 baserunning metric and a 7-for-11 stolen base attempt rate, suggesting he would have been better served avoiding the attempt entirely. The inconsistency was evident throughout the year, with his batting average peaking in April (.354) before plummeting in June (.198) and never recovering meaningfully.

Guerrero’s struggles were particularly pronounced against right-handed pitchers (.253/.314/.336) and in the second half of the season, where his production dipped further. His defensive reliability at first base was his lone bright spot, though his offensive regression overshadowed even that contribution.

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