NFL

Cowboys should be afraid of this one nightmare stat heading into Week 5 Thursday night game with Buccaneers

October 8, 2026

The Dallas Cowboys enter Thursday night’s showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as heavy favorites, backed by a dominant home record against their division rivals. Dallas boasts a 13-2 all-time advantage at home over Tampa Bay, the second-best winning percentage for any team against a single opponent in league history.

The Bucs have averaged just 13.2 points per game in those matchups, the second-lowest road scoring mark since the 1970 merger, while also struggling in primetime, posting a dismal 1-9 record in their last 10 such games since 2023. Adding to the pressure, Tampa Bay will turn to undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels for his first career start on the road, a high-stakes debut against a formidable opponent.

Yet, one troubling stat for the Cowboys emerges: seven teams in NFL history have started 0-4 while being outscored by 21 points or fewer in those games, and six of them won by at least a touchdown in Week 5. The Buccaneers fit this profile exactly, having lost four straight by a combined seven points—33-27, 23-19, 23-16, and 17-14—while remaining within striking distance each time.

Their resilience in close games suggests this could be the week they finally break through, despite the long odds stacked against them.