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Evenepoel and Del Toro the favourites, but Il Lombardia is wide open – Analysing the contenders

The 2026 edition of Il Lombardia arrives as the final Monument of the season, promising a race far more unpredictable than recent years. The absence of five-time winner Tadej Pogačar—who dominated the event from 2019 to 2023—has already reshaped the competition, injecting fresh tactical intrigue into the race.

This year’s 239km route, culminating in the grueling Madonna del Ghisallo, San Fermo della Battaglia, and Civiglio climbs, sets the stage for a battle among a deep field of contenders, none of whom can match Pogačar’s consistency but all of whom possess the tools to challenge for victory in a race that has historically favored bold, decisive moves over steady endurance efforts alone.

Remco Evenepoel enters as the clearest heir to Pogačar’s throne, though his form has been uneven since a disappointing World Championship. The Belgian, a two-time Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner and former world champion, has shown flashes of brilliance—most recently in the European road race title—while also relying on a sharp sprint finish to secure podiums.

His 2020 near-win in Lombardia suggests he remains a threat, though his inability to fully distance rivals in recent races leaves questions about whether he can replicate his peak dominance. Meanwhile, Isaac del Toro emerges as UAE Team Emirates’ best shot at a Monument, his aggressive style and climbing prowess making him a joint favorite alongside Evenepoel.

With Pogačar sidelined, the race’s outcome hinges on which rider can best exploit the race’s tactical nuances and deliver a decisive attack on the final climbs.

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