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Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever have less than 6% chance to win WNBA championship, way behind Angel Reese's Atlanta Dream

Entering the postseason as the sixth seed, the Indiana Fever prepare to battle the defending champion Las Vegas Aces in an opening round series. Although Indiana held a favorable two-to-one record against Las Vegas during the regular season and led the league in offensive rating, mathematical projections present an uphill climb.

ESPN calculations assign the Fever only a forty point four percent probability of advancing past the first round and a meager five point nine percent chance to capture the overall title. Conversely, the Atlanta Dream enter the championship conversation with significantly higher statistical backing.

Powered by a potent roster, Atlanta captured the fourth seed through a thirty and fourteen record, earning a nineteen point eight percent title projection that ranks second best across the entire league.

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