Photo via Yahoo Sports

Kalshi odds suggest Lincoln Riley is likely to be fired

Prediction markets are increasingly shaping expectations in college football, and the latest indicator for USC head coach Lincoln Riley suggests his future with the Trojans may be in jeopardy. Kalshi’s trading platform now lists Riley at a 67% chance of being fired by February 2027, up from just 21% at the start of the season.

The shift reflects USC’s mixed performance this year, including a 5-1 record but struggles in Big Ten play, where they’ve yet to defeat a top-tier opponent aside from a late win over Washington. Riley’s tenure has been marked by inconsistency, with only three top-15 finishes in four seasons and a 2-2 bowl record, leaving fans and analysts questioning his long-term viability despite an explosive offensive start (37.3 points per game overall, 31.3 in conference play).

The Trojans face a grueling stretch ahead, with road games against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State looming, which could further test Riley’s coaching. His hiring in 2022 was met with high expectations, but the lack of playoff appearances and defensive shortcomings have intensified scrutiny.

The market’s movement—from 21% to 46% in odds—highlights growing uncertainty, with a $10 bet on his departure already yielding nearly $4.54 in profit. Whether USC’s offense can sustain its momentum or the defense improves remains critical in determining Riley’s future.

Up nextCollege Football· 39m ago

ESPN’s Rece Davis Urges USC Caution on Lincoln Riley Firing Despite Mounting Pressure: “Have You Lost the Team?”