College Football

Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model: Who wins the Red River Shootout?

October 7, 2026

The annual Red River Shootout takes center stage this weekend as top-ranked Texas Longhorns welcome Oklahoma Sooners to a showdown with major implications for both programs. Texas, currently leading the SEC with standout wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, enters the matchup as the clear favorite, bolstered by a strong 4-0 start and the emergence of quarterback Arch Manning.

Despite early-season struggles, Oklahoma’s defense remains one of the nation’s best, though the Sooners’ offense has struggled, leaving them with a 2-2 record and out of the latest AP rankings. According to the SP+ model, Texas is projected to win decisively by a score of 27-17, with a 73% chance of victory—a margin that underscores their dominance in this matchup.

The model, which adjusts for tempo and opponent efficiency, has been accurate this season, though Texas’s No. 1 ranking could still face challenges if Georgia and Alabama deliver a compelling primetime clash.

Manning’s development remains a focal point, as he continues to refine his play despite occasional decision-making concerns under pressure. With the stakes high, the Longhorns’ ability to maintain their top spot hinges on a strong defensive performance against Oklahoma’s elite unit, even as questions linger about Manning’s readiness to sustain elite quarterback play.