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NBA over/under predictions for every Western Conference team: Lakers undervalued, Warriors in for a long year

The Western Conference’s top tier is set to dominate again this season, but the gap between elite and mid-tier teams may be wider than ever. Only six squads—the Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Rockets, and Lakers—are projected to clear 50 wins, with the Trail Blazers and Jazz forming a clear second tier.

The rest face a tougher path due to a more competitive schedule, as lottery reform has eliminated the incentive for teams to tank, while the East’s strength forces every Western team to play its toughest opponents twice. These factors make predicting win totals especially tricky, though the Nuggets stand out as a potential overachiever if Aaron Gordon remains healthy.

The Mavericks’ outlook is particularly volatile, hinging on Kyrie Irving’s future. If Dallas trades him, their win total could plummet, but retaining Irving—alongside P.J.

Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Cooper Flagg—could push them toward 40 wins. The uncertainty leaves their over/under at 34.5, reflecting both risk and reward in their roster’s potential.

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