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LSU vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model: Lane Kiffin faces a must-win

Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers face a pivotal SEC road game this weekend against Kentucky, a team that has quickly emerged as a conference threat under first-year head coach Will Stein. The Wildcats, now 4-1 overall with a three-game winning streak—including a road victory over Texas A&M—pose a stiff challenge, but LSU’s dominant offense and defense (ranked third and second nationally, respectively) give them a clear edge.

The Tigers, however, enter SEC play at 1-1, having lost to Ole Miss, and must avoid further missteps with four of their next seven games against ranked opponents. According to the SP+ predictive model, LSU is favored by 13 points, with a projected 33-20 victory and a 79% chance of winning.

The model highlights Kentucky’s struggles on third down (131st in conversion rate) and LSU’s stifling run defense (fourth nationally in yards allowed per carry) as key factors, suggesting the Tigers will control the game from start to finish. The line from DraftKings backs this up, with LSU set as an 8.5-point favorite.

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