NFL

Digging into the numbers to predict Cowboys vs Buccaneers

October 7, 2026

The Dallas Cowboys enter their showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers riding a strong offensive performance, with quarterback Dak Prescott delivering a near-flawless outing last week against the Texans. Prescott threw for 335 yards, a touchdown, and zero interceptions, finishing with a quarterback rating of 99.8—a testament to his precision under pressure.

The Cowboys' ground game also showed flashes of brilliance, as rookie running back Javonte Williams scored three touchdowns in the second half, despite being limited to just 62 rushing yards. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb continued his dominant season, setting career highs with 189 receiving yards and 17 receptions, including the game-winning touchdown.

However, Dallas’ defense struggled with explosive plays, allowing the Texans a 16% explosive play rate, which could pose a challenge if Tampa Bay’s offense finds its rhythm again this week.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, face a critical test after dropping their fourth straight game, marking their worst start since 2013. Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels made his first career start, completing 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while also rushing for 55 yards.

The offense leaned heavily on running back Bucky Irving, who gained 61 yards on 16 carries, but the unit remains inconsistent. Tampa Bay’s defense, however, has been a bright spot, ranking fourth in expected points allowed per play this season.

With the Cowboys’ pass rush targeting a Buccaneers offensive line that has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL, Dallas could gain an edge by pressuring Daniels early and often—especially given his unproven experience in high-pressure situations.