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Advanced Stats Give Wisconsin Surprising Edge in Huge Showdown with No. 16 USC

Wisconsin will host No. 16 USC this Saturday night after a disappointing road defeat to No. 12 UCLA. Despite the Trojans' high-powered passing attack and superior talent, Vegas odds list the Badgers as less than a field goal underdog.

Parker Fleming's advanced analytics model predicts a Wisconsin victory with a 50.8% win probability and a projected score of 24.7 to 24.4. This edge is supported by Wisconsin's defensive rankings, including No.

9 in defensive EPA per rush and No. 12 in defensive EPA per drop-back.

The Badgers' early down defensive EPA is also No. 5 in the country, while USC's defense has struggled, allowing 35 points to Rutgers, 30 to Louisiana-Lafayette, and 26 to Sa.

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