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Oregon Ducks move down in ESPN FPI ranking despite victory

The Oregon Ducks dropped one spot in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) after a hard-fought 17-14 comeback victory over Nebraska, despite a chaotic weekend in college football that saw five of the top seven AP-ranked teams suffer losses. While the Ducks remained steady at No.

25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, their FPI projections improved in key areas—including a higher chance to win the Big Ten, reach the College Football Playoff, and contend for a national title. However, their path forward remains uncertain, particularly with lingering questions at quarterback and a stagnant offense that has struggled in recent weeks.

Oregon’s win probability against Illinois fell slightly to 77.0%, while their chances against Northwestern dipped marginally to 76.9%, though the Ducks’ defense is expected to anchor those matchups. A potential roadblock looms in Week 10 at Ohio State, where Oregon’s win probability plummeted to just 16.2%, partly due to concerns over quarterback Julian Sayin’s arm injury, which could sideline him for the game.

Meanwhile, their odds of defeating Michigan in Week 11 rose to 81.7%, as the Wolverines’ offensive direction remains unclear following the end of Bryce Underwood’s tenure.

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