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Michigan State Is An 8.5-Point Home Underdog. Three Keys To Win
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College Football

Michigan State Is An 8.5-Point Home Underdog. Three Keys To Win

October 17, 2026

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Michigan State enters Saturday’s Big Ten showdown against the No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats as an 8.5-point underdog, seeking their first conference win of the season after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Illinois.

The Spartans face a critical test on both sides of the ball, as Northwestern’s offense—led by former Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles—has been nearly flawless, boasting a 4-1 record, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions this season. Chiles, now at Northwestern, holds the Big Ten lead in completion percentage at 71.4%, but his history in East Lansing includes six interceptions thrown at home in 2024 alone, offering a glimmer of hope for a Spartans defense already stretched thin by injuries.

With four cornerbacks and three linebackers sidelined, including key playmaker Jordan Hall, Michigan State’s secondary will need to disrupt Chiles’ rhythm early to avoid another close loss. On offense, quarterback Alessio Milivojevic showed signs of progress last week, completing 84.6% of his passes and throwing two touchdowns—a stark improvement after a three-game touchdown drought.

If Milivojevic can sustain that efficiency, the Spartans might have a chance to overcome Northwestern’s high-powered attack, but their ability to stay healthy and limit further injuries will be just as crucial. The game kicks off at noon ET on Peacock, with the outcome hinging on whether Michigan State’s defense can force Chiles’ first interception of the season and whether Milivojevic’s hot hand carries over from last week’s performance.

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