College Football

A loss to rival Oklahoma hurts, but it will take a lot more to derail Texas' College Football Playoff path

October 11, 2026

Texas Longhorns suffered a stunning upset loss to rival Oklahoma in a high-stakes rivalry game, falling 27-24 on a last-second field goal after trailing by 10 points. Despite the setback, the Longhorns remain in strong contention for a College Football Playoff berth, with a projected 66.8% chance of making the expanded 12-team field, even with three losses.

Their resume includes a marquee victory over Ohio State and a challenging SEC schedule, which could still position them as an at-large candidate if they finish with a 9-3 record—a scenario that would mark the first time a three-loss team qualifies for the playoff under the current format.

Looking ahead, Texas faces six of its final seven games against teams that have been ranked in the top 16 at some point this season, including four of their next five opponents projected to be in the Week 7 AP poll. Their Week 2 win over Ohio State remains a critical resume-builder, and the CBS Sports playoff forecaster suggests a two-loss Texas team would have a 100% chance of earning a playoff spot, given the strength of their victories compared to last season’s Vanderbilt team, which was left out with just two losses.