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Rams, Packers, Chargers, Patriots: Which Week 1 losses should scare us most?

Several projected contenders stumbled out of the gate in Week 1, headlined by the Los Angeles Rams suffering a 20-point rout against the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers dropping a 17-point decision to the Minnesota Vikings. Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Chargers fell by 12 points to the Arizona Cardinals despite being favored by over a touchdown at home, while the New England Patriots were edged 13-10 by the Seattle Seahawks behind three interceptions from Drake Maye.

Historical trends dating from 2015 to 2025 show that opening-week score differentials rarely dictate future success for preseason favorites among the top 12 Super Bowl contenders. 2% mark for non-contenders who won.

Instead of blowout margins, yards per play, or turnover luck, underlying metrics proved far more predictive: teams trailing in success-rate differential reached the playoffs only 30% of the time, compared to 54% for those on the positive side, alongside key indicators like sack rates and third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball.