Fernando Mendoza inherits a 4-5 Raiders team and NFL history offers two wildly different outcomes
The Las Vegas Raiders enter a pivotal moment after trading Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, handing the starting quarterback job to rookie Fernando Mendoza, who was selected first overall in April’s draft. Mendoza will make his NFL debut Sunday against the Seahawks, inheriting a 4-5 team at the same midseason juncture where Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson once took over in vastly different fates.
Goff, the Rams’ first pick in 2016, went 0-7 in his rookie starts, throwing seven interceptions and five touchdowns as Los Angeles finished 4-12 before firing Jeff Fisher and hiring Sean McVay. In contrast, Jackson—then a late first-round pick in 2018—replaced an injured Joe Flacco at the same 4-5 mark and won six of his first seven starts, leading Baltimore to an AFC North title and a wild-card berth despite just five touchdown passes.
History suggests rookie quarterbacks who debut between Weeks 10 and 13 face steep challenges: since 2000, only five of 22 such starters won their first game, with completion rates below 54% and interception rates over 5%. Mendoza’s path to the starting role, however, includes nine weeks on the bench—a preparation period that could either ease his transition or underscore the pressure of an NFL debut without a full offseason to adjust.
