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2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Post Mortem Analysis: Part 1 What Went Well

The 2026 Arizona Diamondbacks defied expectations late in the season, finishing with an 86-win campaign despite a balanced run differential of 739 scored to 730 allowed—a mark that aligned closely with their Pythagorean projection of 81.9 wins. Their overperformance by roughly four wins placed them fifth in MLB, a testament to resilience in a year where offensive production dipped sharply from their 2024 league-leading 886 runs to just 739 in 2026.

While the team’s pitching improved significantly, moving from 26th in run prevention in 2024 to 17th in 2026, the offense struggled to regain its former dominance, falling 52 runs short of their 2025 total and 147 behind their peak season.

The bullpen emerged as the team’s standout unit, climbing from 30th in win probability added (WPA) in 2025 to fifth in 2026, contributing nearly four wins’ worth of clutch performances. Relievers Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, and Justin Martinez collectively outpaced the team’s starters in WPA, with Garcia’s elite left-handed performance (.182 xwOBA) and Martinez’s career-high fastball velocity (101.8 mph in September) highlighting their impact.

Though Martinez’s return from Tommy John surgery saw occasional rust, his late-season velocity suggested strong potential for 2027, while Garcia’s dominant sinker-sweeper combo underscored the bullpen’s depth as a key driver of the team’s unexpected success.

Up nextMLB· 1d ago

Arizona Diamondbacks News 10/8